Righteous God or Demagogue?

The lessons AMLO's movement holds for Mexico (and the world generally)

July 2023

Mexico City

“For the first time, many people don’t have to spend their own money to maintain their elderly parents. For the first time, many families have extra money for food, notebooks or whatever they need. This government has always delivered for the average person,” notes Pepe as watches the morning recap of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s daily morning press conference, or mañaneras (the president is colloquially known as AMLO).

“I have read, however, that AMLO has cut the education budget which has caused schools to shorten their school days,” I reply, in reference to a New York Times article arguing that by redirecting money in direct payments it is actually hurting those who rely on public education the most – namely, the poor.

Pepe, along with his wife Elaina and two grown children, both say they have not heard of these cuts in the school day. I do not press the issue. I have no dog in the fight but Pepe and his family do.

Pepe’s mother is almost 100 and he and his sister care for her. They spend large sums on diapers and medications. With money from the government for elderly like his mother, this frees up money he and his sister previously had to spend on her.

Pepe and his family are proudest of AMLO in how he has strengthened the country’s independence. “AMLO has refused to overspend. He is prioritizing spending for those that need it the most but he has refused to take out loans from foreign banks. He knows what happened in the 1980s and 1990s to Mexico,” referring to debt crises that led to rescues foreign-led bailouts with significant conditions which handicapped Mexico’s financial independence.

“The bailouts just helped the wealthy Mexican bankers while putting the country at the mercy of foreign governments,” Pepe continues.

AMLO plays the nationalist and class card brilliantly. Since its independence from Spain about 200 years ago, Mexico has been directly invaded by multiple foreign powers multiple times and at various times seen parts of its land, natural wealth and government finances controlled by foreigners. Mexico is also a country where roughly half the population lives below the poverty line and the country that works the world’s longest hours.

Directing the frustrations of a majority against a privileged minority and foreigners is a well-tested one two punch. So is an image of a humble servant of the people.

“In two years, AMLO’s one term will end. He has already said, ‘I am out [of the political game]’,” says Pepe, referring to the fact that Mexican presidents can serve only one, six year term. “AMLO sees the corruption and fight for power happening in MORENA [his party] and he doesn’t want anything to do with it.”

I find Pepe’s assertion that AMLO is preparing to step back from politics unlikely. AMLO is a life-long politician who ran for president three times – finally winning on his third try – and his potential successors of his party work for his approval. Politicians do not just give up influence, especially when they have approval ratings above 60 percent (which, as of mid-2023, AMLO has).

I also find Pepe and his family’s admiration of AMLO a bit dogmatic. AMLO is the man who can do no wrong; those around him, perhaps but he, no.

I ask Pepe’s family about AMLO’s attempts to defund the INE, the government agency that runs the nation’s elections. Portrayed by many in the international press as an anti-democratic power grab by AMLO, Pepe and his family argue that it is an attempt to constrain the unacceptably high salaries of those in the upper echelons of Mexico’s government which can run at over 10,000 USD a month in a country where the minimum wage is under 10 dollars a day. They say that AMLO’s attempt to cut part of the INE has nothing to do with democracy and all about reining in wasteful government spending. And finally, they emphasize that AMLO is not getting rid of the INE, simply making it fiscally responsible.

I find myself nodding along. Yes, it is sensible that bureaucrats should not have excessively high salaries in a country where half the population lives in poverty. It also feels like whiplash. I have read multiple articles from news sources that I trust berating AMLO for his attempts to cut the budget of the INE calling it an anti-democratic power grab yet Pepe, someone who’s intellect I greatly respect, is telling me the opposite.

Another controversial aspect of AMLO are his morning news conferences, or mañaneras. Another Mexican friend, who although left-leaning politically, dislikes the mañaneras. “They are pure and simple propaganda, not a real opportunity to challenge the president or increase democratic engagement,” she says. If building a functioning, long-term democracy is the goal, AMLO is not helping.

She says the mañaneras are indicative of how AMLO personalizes everything. “He has to be the center. Every national program in the country has to be his program, his idea. He has to leave his mark on everything.” Redirecting cash from schools to individuals is a program with a clear effect on people’s wallets. Whether it is a good policy or not matters less than its visibility as an AMLO policy.

In a balanced analysis of AMLO, the online journal Nueva Sociedad discusses how AMLO brags about his poll numbers and says those who oppose him are not part of the Mexican pueblo, or nation. He demonizes the monied classes as fifis (stuck up). He personally attacks journalists who expose corruption in his administration, insinuating they are paid agents of the opposition.

Pepe of course takes a different view. “The mañaneras are brilliant because they allow the president to make the news. He can control the narrative. If he didn’t do them, the mainstream press would control the narrative with negative messages against him.”

Pepe’s statement implies that the mainstream press is reactionary and conservative, instinctively opposed to AMLO’s policies that help the less fortunate. Politics is a dirty game without rules. AMLO is achieving justice for his people and the ends justify the means.

The very idea of democracy is, for some, a luxury. People need to eat and have a home before they can worry about developing strong courts and a vibrant free press. When living in South Korea, I frequently asked elderly people whether they had negative feelings toward the dictators that ruled the nation for much of the nation’s economic development from one of the poorest to wealthiest societies in the world. Almost all said no, worrying about the political system was secondary to being able to eat. And some of the dictators did greatly improve the Korean economy.

And given half of Mexico lives below the poverty line, it is natural that people may be more likely to view AMLO positively for his cash transfers to citizens and place less importance on his democratic shortcomings.

And if Mexico has historically been controlled by a monied minority and foreign capital, and where electoral fraud has been rampant over the last 100 years, how democratic has it ever been? Is it not best to play class warfare and win however possible? The other side won’t play by nice democratic rules.

Ultimately democracies are about the flourishing of opposing viewpoints. They need legitimate opposition parties. The ruling parties should accept opposing opinions as legitimate expressions of a segment of the population even as they disagree.

But if everything is distilled down to a class conflict where the traditional power are monied interests controlled by foreigners who oppress the righteous majority then there is little hope for anything beyond constant class warfare.

However, this class conflict leads to the suppression of critical views. If one side is right and the other wrong, then it naturally is hard to criticize your side. Criticizing your side could lead to lack of unity and ultimately gains for the evil opposition.

Pepe and his family had not heard of the above mentioned education cuts prompted by the cash transfers. I also asked Pepe’s son and daughter-in-law, both graduates of UNAM (Mexico’s top university), about AMLO’s recent criticism of the university as a bastion of neo-liberal (ultra-capitalist) economics. Neither had heard of AMLO’s criticism despite relatively widespread news coverage. And when I asked Pepe and his family about whether they think the criticism that AMLO has not done enough to combat violence against women, they all argue that the violence was an issue before AMLO and that these criticisms are merely the “interests” (aka the monied classes) trying to harm AMLO.

It feels like an alternative universe. The facts are not necessarily alternative or false but rather selectively chosen and interpreted with an eye toward supporting AMLO.

And Pepe and his family are very well-educated, all holding at a minimum a bachelor’s degree. They are voracious readers of politics and culture. Their loyalty to AMLO is not rooted in ignorance, simply a human tendency toward confirmation bias and tribalism. And while their views are one-sided, many are not necessarily wrong. Their grievances against the “interests” are real and based on centuries of exploitation. Pepe and his wife Elaina both come from impoverished backgrounds and, although they have planted themselves in the middle class (Pepe, an owner of a microbus and Elaina, a retired school teacher and counselor), they still live in a working class neighborhood and identify with, in their words, the “less fortunate, exploited classes.”

But if AMLO’s policies are destructive and no one within his coalition calling them problematic, ultimately the Mexican people will suffer. A culture where dissent is not encouraged is a culture at risk of falling into autocracy and leaving the country with festering problems.

The problems outlined above are not unique to Mexico; indeed, both sides of the political spectrum in the United States suffer from similar issues. The question is how to create a more just society where all have their basic needs met, feel respected, keep an open mind and are able to participate in democracy respecting their opponents rather than viewing them as the devil incarnate. AMLO is making headway at materially improving the lives of many and making the historically marginalized feel heard so the positive must be acknowledged alongside the negative. In the long-term, one must hope this can be done while also advancing democracy.